Opinion | Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire: A Cautious Beginning
Whether it is Trump’s diktat to Bibi to finish the job before re-entering the White House or Biden-Blinken persistence that finally paid off—the fact is that peace should always be a more desirable enterprise than starting a factory of war
Finally, effective from November 27 at 4 am onwards, a ceasefire deal, much sought after by the Biden Administration to partially redeem itself, was worked out and announced between Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon with the support of France. This occurred under the shadow of increased bombings and missile barrages from both sides in the past few weeks. Lebanon reported over 3,500 killed and thousands injured as Israel mounted its strikes to decimate the Hezbollah threat so that more than 70,000 displaced Israelis could return to their homes.
By eliminating Hezbollah leader Nasrallah and a large number of political and military leaders in precision strikes against the most powerful proxy and partner of Iran in the ‘Axis of Resistance’, Netanyahu may have redeemed himself and his powerful forces and intelligence outfits from the humiliation of the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas, to some extent. However, by making the commanders incommunicado due to targeted strikes and decapitating others, Tel Aviv bought more trouble for itself. This became evident as individual Hezbollah commanders, armed with high-precision weaponry and projectiles, got the better of Israel, hitting targets all around, including Netanyahu’s house.
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This would be yet another unwinnable situation. Hence, despite much opposition from his ultra-right ministers like Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who were baying for more blood, Netanyahu, under pressure from Biden/Trump, made the right decision to agree to a ceasefire deal that, if it holds, could eventually lead to a reasonable outcome. But there are too many ifs and buts, and fingers must be kept crossed. US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein worked overtime, as did the father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany, who is of Lebanese origin. French President Macron has been engaged, discharging his historic responsibility to bring some normalcy to a beleaguered country caught between a rock and a hard place.
President Biden tweeted that he had spoken to the Prime Ministers of Israel and Lebanon, stating, “Under the deal reached today, the fighting across the Lebanon-Israel border will end tomorrow. Lasting security for the people of Israel and Lebanon cannot be achieved solely on the battlefield—that’s why I directed my team to work with the governments of Lebanon and Israel to forge a ceasefire."
Netanyahu has retained his right to resume hostilities and retaliate if he determines that a violation has taken place or a threat has been posed against Israel. This was the key selling point to his ultra-right-wing colleagues and supporters. He secured this carte blanche through a separate guarantee letter from the Americans. He was also able to decouple Gaza from Lebanon, which had been one of Hezbollah’s key conditions since October 8, 2023, when they engaged in a low-key war in support of Hamas and the Palestinian cause. However, before the acceptance of the ceasefire, both sides intensified attacks, further escalating destruction and casualties as if there were no tomorrow. This smacks of their non-seriousness and doubtful intent, even as the international community breathes a sigh of relief.
The ceasefire, initially for a period of sixty days, entails the withdrawal of Israeli forces back to their borders. Hezbollah outfits will be dismantled and moved north of the Litani River or the Blue Line. All external actors and stakeholders have called for the full implementation of UNSC Resolution 1701. Both Macron and Biden, in a joint statement, claimed that the agreement would create the conditions to restore lasting calm and allow residents in both countries to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Blue Line.
The US and France will work with Israel and Lebanon to ensure that the arrangement is fully implemented and enforced. They also agreed to lead and support international efforts for the capacity building of the Lebanese Armed Forces, as well as for economic development throughout Lebanon, to advance stability and prosperity in the region. This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. As they say, Inshallah… time will tell.
Netanyahu has already announced, “The length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon. We will respond forcefully to any violation"—acting as both jury and judge. Hezbollah survives under the arrangement and will hopefully stay on the other side of the Litani River, as an afflicted Lebanon finds some relief from misery and destruction. Iran also gets some relief, as efforts are being made to restart talks to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza and secure the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas.
As most of Hamas’s leadership recently relocated to Türkiye, it appears that Ronen Brar, the Shin Bet Chief, visited to secure their assistance, despite the two sides likely having the lowest level of diplomatic confidence and relationship. Even Biden has claimed that he would like to secure that deal as well.
Whether it is Trump’s diktat to Bibi to finish the job before re-entering the White House, Biden-Blinken persistence that finally paid off, or the internal dynamics and constraints within Israel’s domestic polity—the fact remains that peace should always be a more desirable enterprise than starting a factory of war.
The author is the former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow with Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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